CS2 Trade Up Odds From Covert To Knives, Explained

The October 2025 CS2 update finally lets players convert five Covert skins into a single Gold drop, which means a knife or a pair of gloves depending on the collections you feed into the contract. This change flipped the market overnight and created a brand new path to chase dream items without opening cases.

Table of Contents

How the new knife and glove contracts work

You use five Covert skins of the same type. You cannot mix StatTrak with non StatTrak in one contract.
The game chooses one collection from those represented by your inputs, then rolls a Gold outcome from that collection’s rare pool.
If all five inputs are StatTrak Covert, the result is a StatTrak knife. Gloves do not exist in StatTrak, so a five StatTrak Covert mix cannot return gloves.
If your inputs are all from a single case that has only one knife family, the outcome is effectively locked to that family.

What are the odds?

Your chance to land an outcome from a given collection equals the fraction of your inputs that come from that collection. Two coverts from Case A and three from Case B means a two out of five chance to roll Case A, three out of five for Case B. The knife or gloves are then rolled from the Gold pool of the selected case. Float is now computed with an adjusted two step formula, which normalizes each input to its own float caps before averaging, then maps that average into the outcome item range.

Example
Put five Covert skins from the Operation Breakout case and you force a Butterfly roll, since Breakout’s rare special is Butterfly only. Put three Breakout coverts and two Spectrum coverts and you have a three fifths chance to roll a Butterfly pool and a two fifths chance to roll Spectrum’s knife pool.

Quick rules that save money

One case in, one knife family out, whenever that case’s rare pool is a single family. Use this to guarantee families like Classic or Bowie through their home cases.
All StatTrak inputs return a StatTrak knife only. You cannot trade up to StatTrak gloves.
Mix and match only when you are comfortable with split odds. Use exact counts to control your percentages.
Your inputs control float of the outcome through the adjusted average. If you care about Factory New or Minimal Wear, choose low float inputs that actually can roll low within their caps.

Which coverts to use for specific knife families

The lists below highlight the simplest paths. Use five of any listed coverts to include that case in your pool. If a case is the only home for a family, five from that case will lock the outcome to that family.

Butterfly Knife targets

Cases that contain Butterfly include Operation Breakout, Dreams and Nightmares, Operation Riptide, Spectrum, Spectrum 2. Example coverts that add these cases to your pool:

Case	Covert skins you can use
Operation Breakout	M4A1 S Cyrex, P90 Asiimov
Dreams and Nightmares	AK 47 Nightwish, MP9 Starlight Protector
Operation Riptide	Desert Eagle Ocean Drive
Spectrum, Spectrum 2	AK 47 Bloodsport, USP S Neo Noir, P250 See Ya Later, AK 47 The Empress, AK 47 Leet Museo

Use five Operation Breakout coverts to force a Butterfly pool. Mix cases to split odds across their Butterfly supporting pools.

Karambit, plus Bayonet, M9, Flip, Gut

These legacy families appear across many older cases. You can add any of the following coverts to include Karambit group cases in your pool:

Examples of qualifying coverts across legacy cases
AWP Lightning Strike, SSG 08 Blood in the Water, CZ75 Auto Victoria, P90 Death by Kitty, M4A4 X Ray, M4A4 Bullet Rain, AK 47 Jaguar, AK 47 Fire Serpent, Desert Eagle Golden Koi, AUG Chameleon, AWP Asiimov, P2000 Fire Elemental, AK 47 Wasteland Rebel, R8 Revolver Fade, M4A4 Royal Paladin, Sawed Off The Kraken, M4A4 Asiimov, MAC 10 Neon Rider, M4A1 S Hyper Beast, M4A1 S Chantico’s Fire, PP Bizon Judgement of Anubis, Galil AR Chatterbox, AWP Man o war, AK 47 Neon Revolution, FAMAS Roll Cage, Glock 18 Wasteland Rebel, M4A1 S Mecha Industries

Examples of qualifying coverts across legacy cases

AWP Lightning Strike, SSG 08 Blood in the Water, CZ75 Auto Victoria, P90 Death by Kitty, M4A4 X Ray, M4A4 Bullet Rain, AK 47 Jaguar, AK 47 Fire Serpent, Desert Eagle Golden Koi, AUG Chameleon, AWP Asiimov, P2000 Fire Elemental, AK 47 Wasteland Rebel, R8 Revolver Fade, M4A4 Royal Paladin, Sawed Off The Kraken, M4A4 Asiimov, MAC 10 Neon Rider, M4A1 S Hyper Beast, M4A1 S Chantico’s Fire, PP Bizon Judgement of Anubis, Galil AR Chatterbox, AWP Man o war, AK 47 Neon Revolution, FAMAS Roll Cage, Glock 18 Wasteland Rebel, M4A1 S Mecha Industries

Mixing these splits your odds across many knife families. To bias toward Karambit, favor coverts from cases that include Karambit and do not include other desired families in your plan.

Classic Knife

Classic drops only from CS20. So five CS20 coverts gives a one hundred percent Classic pool. Use FAMAS Commemoration or AWP Wildfire.

Falchion, Kukri

Kukri appears in two cases. Use any of these to include Kukri: AWP Chrome Cannon, AK 47 Inheritance, Glock 18 Gold Toof, M4A1 S Vaporwave.
Falchion appears in five cases. Simple guaranteed path is to use coverts from the Falchion Case itself, AWP Hyper Beast and AK 47 Aquamarine Revenge.

Shadow Daggers, Bowie

Shadow Daggers have their own case. Use M4A1 S Golden Coil or USP S Kill Confirmed for a pure daggers pool.
Bowie comes from Operation Wildfire. Use M4A4 The Battlestar or AK 47 Fuel Injector for a pure Bowie pool.

Stiletto, Navaja, Talon, Ursus

These four knives are bundled together across a shared set of cases. Any of the coverts below will put you into the four knife set:

Any one of these coverts will enter the four knife group
Glock 18 Bullet Queen, M4A1 S Player Two, Five Seven Angry Mob, M4A4 The Emperor, AWP Neo Noir, AK 47 Asiimov, Desert Eagle Code Red, AK 47 Neon Rider

Using five coverts from those cases locks you into that four knife pool.

How to target specific CS2 gloves

Gloves are split into series that correspond to a few modern cases. Use five regular coverts listed for the series you want.

Glove series	Cases in the series	Covert inputs that work
First series	Glove Case, Operation Hydra	SSG 08 Dragonfire, M4A4 Buzz Kill, Five Seven Hyper Beast, AWP Oni Taiji
Second series	Clutch, Revolution	AK 47 Head Shot, M4A4 Temukau, MP7 Bloodsport Covert SMG, M4A4 Neo Noir
Third series	Operation Broken Fang, Recoil, Snakebite	Glock 18 Neo Noir, M4A1 S Printstream, AWP Chromatic Aberration, USP S Printstream, USP S The Traitor, M4A4 In Living Color

Five coverts from a single series case forces gloves from that series. Remember, gloves do not have StatTrak, so do not use StatTrak inputs for glove attempts.

Sample odds tables you can reuse

Butterfly vs Spectrum two case mix
Inputs: three Dreams and Nightmares coverts, two Spectrum coverts
Odds to roll Dreams and Nightmares pool: three fifths
Odds to roll Spectrum pool: two fifths
Outcome knife then rolls from the selected pool.

Classic guaranteed
Inputs: five CS20 coverts
Odds to roll CS20 pool: five fifths
Outcome is Classic Knife pool only.

Gloves second series forced
Inputs: five Revolution or five Clutch coverts
Odds to roll second series gloves: five fifths
Result is any glove from that series, regular only.